Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$88.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria for this market are straightforward and clearly defined. The market resolves to whichever candidate is the official nominee of the party, with explicit clarification that independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of external party ties. Resolution triggers as soon as three named major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner; if they diverge or do not reach consensus, resolution safely falls back to the state's official certified election results. Nominee replacements prior to election day are explicitly accounted for, and any potential run-offs are included in the timeline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats even if affiliated with the party. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Currently scheduled date of the election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.