Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Last captured price
98.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.1%
$16.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines its resolution criteria based on the official party nominee who wins the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate election. It explicitly notes that independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party caucusing or affiliation, which prevents ambiguity if a non-major party candidate wins. Resolution is tied to a specific three-way media call consensus among the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a definitive fallback to official election certification if consensus is not reached. There are no discretionary judgment calls or unusual timing traps.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate election. Notably, independent candidates with party affiliations are excluded from counting as Democrats or Republicans.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option regardless of party affiliation. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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