Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
Current price
95.7¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.7%
$50.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election. Resolution is tied to the winning nominee representing the Republican party, explicitly handling potential nominee replacements and defining how third-party or independent runs are treated. The resolution mechanism relies on an objective trigger requiring three specific media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) to agree on the call, with an unambiguous fallback to official state certification if a consensus call is not reached. Timing covers potential run-offs directly without introducing open-ended discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election. Notably, independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democrat regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins, including independent candidates who are not considered Republican regardless of affiliation. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official state certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if not in agreement)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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