Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
Current price
3.9¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$46.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and structured resolution mechanics. It resolves based on the official winner of the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election, with party affiliation strictly tied to official primary nomination. Independent candidates are explicitly excluded from counting toward party outcomes even if affiliated. Resolution occurs once three specified major news decision desks (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner, with an unambiguous fallback to official election certification if consensus among the outlets is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Independent candidates are excluded from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of party affiliations. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a winner, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Market End Date: — The latest date by which the market will conclude.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not all agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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