Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
Current price
6.95¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.95%
$14.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains a candidate substitution clause stating that candidate names are for convenience, and if a named candidate is replaced as their party nominee prior to election day, the contract updates to follow the replacement nominee rather than the person named in the title. Outside of this replacement rule, the outcome determination is objective and clearly structured: the market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, falling back to official state election certification if the three networks do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Brian Bengs (or a replacement nominee for his party) will win the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election. If a named nominee is replaced by their party prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Brian Bengs (or his replacement nominee if replaced prior to election day) wins the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates are not encompassed by Democratic or Republican options. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election Year: Year of the South Dakota U.S. Senate race Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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