Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
Current price
92.15¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.15%
$36.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election. Resolution relies on an objective consensus across three named major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official election certification if unanimous consensus is not reached. Party affiliation rules, candidate replacements, runoffs, and independent candidacies are explicitly handled without giving discretionary latitude to the resolver.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves as No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican or Democrat options regardless of affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution tracks the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The market covers the 2026 midterm election. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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