Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$14K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election. Resolution triggers when three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as a definitive fallback if a consensus call is not reached. Independent candidates are explicitly excluded from representing the major parties even if affiliated, and candidate replacement procedures are clearly defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election. Notably, independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation, and resolution requires consensus across three designated media outlets.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic or Republican options regardless of their affiliations. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: official certification)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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