Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
Current price
1.15¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$19.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, explicitly including any potential run-offs. Resolution is tied to unanimous calls from three named news organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a direct fallback to official election certification if they do not agree. Party representation is strictly defined as winning the official party nomination, and candidates running as independents are explicitly excluded from the party options regardless of informal affiliations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election. An important rule is that candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican option, regardless of their party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate must be the official nominee of the Republican party to represent it, and candidates running as independents do not count as Republicans regardless of any affiliation. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The election takes place during the 2026 midterms. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if all three do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.