Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
Last captured price
98.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.3%
$7.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes clear resolution criteria based on the official outcome of the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election. It explicitly details party affiliation rules, stating that independent candidates will not count toward the major party options even if they caucus with or affiliate with them. The resolution sources are clearly identified: resolution triggers once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as the definitive fallback if a consensus is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market's resolution is unusual because it requires agreement from three specific news sources before official certification is used.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election. This includes any run-offs. A candidate is considered to represent the Democratic Party if they are the party's nominee. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the "Democrat" option, regardless of any party affiliation they may have. This market resolves No if a candidate who is not the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate election. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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