Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
Current price
98.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.15%
$4.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines party representation, nominee substitutions, and the resolution path. It relies on a unanimous call across three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), falling back to official state certification if the outlets do not agree. Independent candidates are explicitly excluded from representing the major parties regardless of caucusing status, preventing common classification disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate race. If a named candidate is replaced prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic Party option even if affiliated with the party. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, the race resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Latest moment the market can resolve according to the market end date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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