Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Current price
8.25¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.25%
$32.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how party status is determined, specifying that independent candidates are treated separately from major parties regardless of informal affiliations. Resolution criteria are concrete, requiring unanimous calls from three named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or falling back directly to the state's official election certification if they do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an Independent candidate wins the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election. Independent candidates are evaluated separately from Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of external party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if an Independent candidate wins the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the race. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee, and independent candidates are not encompassed by Democrat or Republican options regardless of any affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee is used. The race is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Year: — The election takes place during the 2026 midterms.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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