Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Current price
91.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 91.5%
$101.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective mechanics for resolution. The outcome is determined when three explicitly named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner, with an unambiguous fallback to official state election certification if they disagree. Candidate substitution, independent affiliations, and potential run-offs are explicitly defined, leaving minimal room for decider interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana, inclusive of any run-offs.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election. If a named candidate is replaced prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Candidates running as independents do not count as Republicans regardless of party affiliation. The market resolves as No if another candidate wins. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Year: — The market covers the 2026 midterm election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if all three do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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