Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.2¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$47.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the race for the same candidate, falling back to official state certification if the three outlets do not reach consensus. The rules clearly define party representation through formal party nomination and explicitly specify that independent candidates do not count toward the Democratic option, regardless of any caucus agreement or political affiliation. Provisions are also clearly set out for handling runoffs and pre-election nominee replacements, leaving minimal room for conflicting interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. It explicitly excludes candidates running as independents from counting for the Democratic or Republican party options, even if they have affiliations with those parties.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins, including the Republican nominee, third-party nominees, or independent candidates (even if an independent is affiliated with the Democratic Party). If a named candidate is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, the race resolves according to the official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Year: The election year specified for the Montana U.S. Senate race. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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