Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$114.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish how the outcome of the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate race will be decided. Party affiliation is explicitly tied to official nomination status, specifically noting that candidates running as independents do not qualify as major-party nominees regardless of affiliation. Resolution requires a unanimous race call from three specified media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a concrete fallback to official state certification if they do not agree. Candidate replacements prior to election day are also clearly handled without introducing ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party, an independent candidate, or any other nominee wins the race. Independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democrat regardless of affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, official election certification determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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