Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Current price
86.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 86.5%
$164.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows standard election resolution mechanics. It resolves when three specified media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all call the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate race for the same candidate. If a consensus among all three is not reached, resolution defaults to the official state election certification. The rules clearly state that candidates running as independents are not counted as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party caucusing or past affiliations, and that party nominees are determined by official nomination status, including any pre-election candidate replacements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. Notably, independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation, and named candidates update automatically if replaced before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates are not considered Democratic or Republican candidates regardless of any affiliation. If a party's nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, resolution will be based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Midterm election year for the Minnesota U.S. Senate race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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