Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Current price
40.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how party representation is determined, noting that candidates running as independents are not counted under the major parties regardless of caucus affiliation. The resolution mechanism relies on consensus among three named media decision desks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with an explicit fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls are not achieved. Potential eventualities such as candidate replacements prior to election day and runoffs are explicitly accounted for without creating structural ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from representing the Republican or Democratic options regardless of their party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party, an independent, or any non-Republican nominee wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of party affiliations. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, official certification determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Election year: — Midterm election year for the Maine U.S. Senate race
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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