Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Current price
60.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 60.5%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clear and straightforward. The outcome depends strictly on the official party nominee who wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race. The rules explicitly specify that independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans even if they caucus with or affiliate with a party, which eliminates ambiguity in a state with prominent independent figures. Resolution triggers automatically when three designated major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same winner, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if the networks diverge or delay.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democrats regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not considered Democrats regardless of their party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Market resolves based on the 2026 midterm election outcome
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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