Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?
Current price
3.25¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.25%
$7.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, linking resolution to three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as the definitive fallback. Candidate party affiliation is explicitly defined by official party nomination, and independent candidates are clearly excluded from major party options even if they caucus with or affiliate with those parties. Potential replacements of party nominees prior to election day and run-offs are also explicitly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. It specifically excludes independent candidates from representing the Democratic Party regardless of any affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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