Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Current price
58.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 58.5%
$400.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish how the market resolves based on the official party nominee who wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race. Resolution triggers as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If those three media outlets do not reach a consensus call, the market relies on the official state certification. Rules also explicitly define party representation, excluding independent candidates even if affiliated, and accommodate candidate replacements prior to election day.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican or Democratic options, regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party or an independent wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic party options regardless of affiliation. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on the official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm election year: — The election takes place during the 2026 midterm cycle.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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