Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Current price
42¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 42%
$506.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish how party affiliation is defined and specify that an independent candidate does not count toward the Democratic or Republican outcome even if affiliated. Resolution relies on an objective trigger: agreement across three designated major media decision desks (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with an explicit fallback to official state certification if the outlets do not align. Nominee replacements prior to election day and potential runoffs are explicitly accounted for without introducing ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A notable aspect is that independent candidates are excluded from the Democratic option regardless of party affiliation, and resolution requires consensus across three designated media outlets or official certification.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not covered by the Democratic option even if affiliated with the party. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, the race resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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