Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
Current price
3.85¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$29.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains a candidate replacement clause that changes how the contract behaves compared to the standalone question. If the named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee prior to election day, the contract name will update and resolve based on the replacement nominee rather than resolving against the original individual. For determination of the winner, the market relies on a unanimous call across three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), falling back to official state certification if unanimous agreement is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Todd Achilles (or his replacement party nominee) wins the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the market updates to track the replacement nominee.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Todd Achilles (or his party's replacement nominee) wins the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Midterm election year specified in the rules
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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