Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
Current price
96.15¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.15%
$95.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly define what constitutes winning the race and how party representation is handled, explicitly noting that independent candidates do not count toward major party outcomes regardless of affiliations. Resolution relies on an objective trigger: unanimous consensus among three named major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official election certification if consensus is not reached. The provisions for candidate replacement prior to election day and inclusion of runoffs ensure standard election contingencies are addressed without leaving room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count as Republican or Democratic nominees regardless of their party affiliations. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not all agree, official certification determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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