Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$19.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the market based on the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election outcome. Resolution relies on a clear consensus among three named major media decision desks (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with an unambiguous fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls are not made. The rules clearly define party nominee status, explicit exclusions for independent candidates regardless of party caucus affiliation, candidate replacement procedures, and inclusion of potential runoffs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Idaho, inclusive of any run-offs. Independent candidates are not counted as Democrats even if they have party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election, including candidates from other parties or independents. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of party affiliation. If a party nominee is replaced before election day, the resolution applies to the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not reach a consensus, the market resolves according to the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The year of the midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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