Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules are precise and objective. Resolution is determined strictly by 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a clear timeframe ending at 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October. There is no decider discretion, and data from other exchanges or pairs is explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to or below $80,000 during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle lows on Binance's BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT trading pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $80,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. Price action before market creation is not considered. The market resolves to No if no such 1-minute candle reaches or falls below $80,000 within this timeframe. Resolution is determined strictly using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data, excluding all other exchanges and spot or trading pairs.
Key dates
- End of observation window: — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.