Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Current price
19.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$354K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official nominee winning the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate running as an independent is explicitly excluded from the major party options regardless of past affiliations. Resolution relies on three specified major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all calling the race for the same candidate, with a definitive fallback to official state certification if a unanimous call is not reached. Replacement nominees prior to election day are automatically mapped to the party option.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A notable detail is that candidates running as independents are excluded from the Republican option even if they hold an affiliation with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Independent candidates are not included under the Republican option regardless of affiliation. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The race takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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