Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Current price
80.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 80.5%
$372.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market features clear and detailed resolution criteria tied to the outcome of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race. It names three specific news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to reach a consensus call before resolving early, falling back to official state certification if unanimous media agreement is not reached. The party affiliation standards are explicitly defined, noting that only the official party nominee qualifies and candidates running as independents are excluded regardless of personal affiliation. Clear provisions also cover potential replacement nominees prior to election day, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate is only considered Democratic if they are the party's official nominee, explicitly excluding independent candidates regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The market resolves as No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates are excluded from the Democratic option regardless of their affiliations. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the resolution tracks the replacement nominee. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the state's official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: Year of the Wisconsin gubernatorial election Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if the three sources do not all call the race for the same candidate)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.