Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Current price
75.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 75.5%
$117.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official party nominee winning the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. Party affiliation is explicitly defined by formal nomination rather than independent status, and nominee replacements before election day are directly accounted for. Resolution relies on an objective consensus among three named major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with an unambiguous fallback to the official state election certification if the networks disagree or fail to call the race.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from representing the Republican Party even if they have an affiliation with it.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial race. It resolves No if another candidate wins. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican outcome regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the call, the market resolves according to official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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