Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
Current price
5.05¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.05%
$169.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish that resolution depends on the official Republican nominee winning the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. The outcome is determined either by unanimous calls across three named media organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—or, if they do not all agree, by the state's official election certification. Clear specifications are provided regarding party affiliation, explicitly excluding independent runs from party options and handling candidate replacements prior to election day without ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from representing the party even if they maintain an affiliation with it.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. If the nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican outcome regardless of party affiliation. The market resolves No if the Republican nominee does not win. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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