Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Current price
94.95¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.95%
$92.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes representing a party, explicitly requiring the candidate to be the official party nominee and excluding independent runs. Resolution is tied to a consensus call across three specific named major media outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with an unambiguous fallback to the official election certification if they disagree. There are no discretionary edge cases or unusual clauses likely to catch participants off guard.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. The resolution is unusual because it requires consensus from three specific news sources before official certification is used.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are that party's nominee. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options, regardless of party affiliation. This market resolves No if a candidate other than the Democratic Party's nominee wins. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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