Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
Current price
94.05¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.05%
$48K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on a straightforward political event with standard, well-defined rules. It clearly sets out that party representation requires official nomination and explicitly excludes independent runs. Resolution is tied to unanimous consensus across three specific major media desks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with a deterministic fallback to official state certification if the networks disagree or fail to call the race. Replacement nominees are explicitly accounted for, and the criteria contain minimal discretion or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from the major party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate represents the party if they are its official nominee, including any replacement nominee named before election day. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of prior affiliation. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution is decided by the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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