Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Current price
41.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 41.5%
$212.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the party nomination, explicitly state how candidate replacements or independent runs are handled, and rely on precise resolution sources. The market resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and automatically falls back to official election certification if there is any disagreement among those outlets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. It specifies that candidates running as independents do not count for the party options regardless of past or present affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Nevada governor race. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if the Republican nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party outcomes regardless of affiliation. The race outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. If all three sources do not reach a consensus, resolution falls back to the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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