Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Current price
58.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 58.5%
$283.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define party representation, specifying that candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democratic nominees regardless of affiliation. Resolution is tied to unanimous race calls from three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the networks diverge. Candidate replacement provisions prior to election day are explicitly addressed, leaving minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. Independent candidates are explicitly excluded from representing the Democratic Party, even if affiliated with it.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial race. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of party affiliation. If a party replaces its nominee prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The market resolves based on the 2026 election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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