Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Current price
6.15¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.15%
$192.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a party nominee and explicitly clarify that independent candidates do not qualify under party labels. The resolution mechanism is well structured: it relies on three designated major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) requiring all three to agree on the projected winner, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls are not reached. Candidate replacements prior to election day are also clearly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. It specifies that candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options even if they hold party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. Candidates running as independents are not considered Republicans regardless of their party affiliation. If a party nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Year of the Michigan gubernatorial election stated in the market
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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