Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Current price
95¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95%
$126.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines how the winning party is determined and requires the candidate to be the official party nominee, explicitly excluding independent runs. Resolution relies on three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching consensus on the winner, with a clear fallback to official state election certification if the networks do not all agree. The rules also account for potential nominee replacements before election day, leaving little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count toward the Democratic outcome regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the resolution applies to the replacement nominee. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official election certification.
Key dates
- Election Year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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