Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Current price
19.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$162.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define party affiliation as the official party nominee, noting that candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democrats or Republicans regardless of prior affiliation. Replacement of a nominee prior to election day is explicitly accounted for. Resolution relies on a strict multi-source consensus among the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a clear fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. It specifies that candidates running as independents do not represent the Democratic Party regardless of any affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option even if affiliated with the party. If a named party candidate is replaced before election day, the resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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