Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Current price
7.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$72.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the election and how party affiliation is determined, specifying that candidates must be the official party nominee and that independents do not count toward major party outcomes. Candidate replacements prior to election day are explicitly addressed. The resolution mechanism is well-defined, requiring a unanimous call across three specific major outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with a direct fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as representing the Republican or Democratic parties regardless of any party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.