Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Current price
92.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.5%
$109.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly outline how party affiliation is determined and explicitly clarify that candidates running as independents do not qualify as major-party nominees. The market specifies three major news outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to project the same winner for early resolution, with an unambiguous fallback to the state's official election certification if consensus is not reached. Replacement of nominees prior to the election is directly addressed, leaving little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option regardless of party affiliation, and if a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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