Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on three specified media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously projecting the same winner, with official state election certification serving as an explicit fallback if the outlets disagree. A final longstop date of July 31, 2027 provides a clear cutoff resolving to Other if results cannot be confirmed. The rules establish an unambiguous order of precedence and objective criteria for determining the winner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elaine Culotti wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elaine Culotti wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date the 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently scheduled
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for confirmed election results before the market resolves to Other
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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