Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish the victory condition based on the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on an objective consensus across three specific, named media networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with official state certification serving as a clear fallback if the networks do not agree. There is a standard long-stop deadline of July 31, 2027, allowing ample time for certification, which resolves to Other if an outcome is still unconfirmed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matt Mahan will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Mahan wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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