Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$4.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward criteria for determining the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. It specifies three primary news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. If there is any disagreement among these outlets, the market falls back directly on the state's official election certification. A generous long-stop deadline of July 31, 2027 provides ample time for recounts or legal challenges to conclude without triggering an accidental void or unexpected timeout resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Steyer will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on consensus among three major media outlets, with a fallback to official certification or resolution to Other if unconfirmed by late July 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Steyer wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — The 2026 California gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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