Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the resolution criteria based on the outcome of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution follows a strict and objective rule hierarchy: the market settles as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and falls back to official state election certification if the three networks disagree or do not all project a winner. An extended timeout date of July 31, 2027, gives ample buffer for routine certification, canvassing, or post-election legal processes before resolving to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Eric Swalwell will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution requires a consensus call across three major news networks before turning to official certification.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Eric Swalwell wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the race. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the scheduled 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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