Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are straightforward and follow standard election reporting procedures. The market resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner for the 2026 California gubernatorial race. If a consensus among those three outlets does not emerge, the outcome falls back directly to the state's officially certified results. A generous backstop deadline of July 31, 2027, ensures that protracted disputes resolve to Other rather than leaving the market open indefinitely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicole Shanahan will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicole Shanahan wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation Deadline: — Deadline for election results to be confirmed before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.