Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly defined. The market resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner for the 2026 California gubernatorial race. If those three designated media outlets do not reach a unanimous call, the outcome will be determined by official election certification. A clear long-stop date of July 31, 2027 resolves the market to "Other" if results are not confirmed by then. The conditions leave minimal room for ambiguity or decider interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michael Younger will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michael Younger wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — The scheduled date of the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — The market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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