Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome based on the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market uses an objective multi-source trigger, resolving as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner. If any of those three outlets disagree or fail to call the race, the resolution defaults strictly to official state election certification. A longstop deadline of July 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other only if results remain unconfirmed by that date, offering ample time for all standard counts, recounts, and certifications to conclude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tony Thurmond will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tony Thurmond wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The race is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — The 2026 California gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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