Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly identify the event and candidate. Resolution is tied to specific, named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) requiring unanimous calls, with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. A clear backstop date of July 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if confirmation is excessively delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Daniel Mercuri wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Daniel Mercuri wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 California gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — If election results are not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.