Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial race. Resolution triggers immediately once three specifically named major news desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same winner. In the absence of a unanimous media call, the market explicitly falls back on official state certification. An extended longstop date of July 31, 2027, provides a clear fallback to resolve to Other if results remain unconfirmed, leaving minimal decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Eleni Kounalakis will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution requires agreement among three major media networks or official certification, with a cutoff date for unresolved results.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Eleni Kounalakis wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three outlets call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date of the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation Deadline: — Deadline for election results to be confirmed before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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