Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the outcome of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. It uses a well-defined consensus mechanism requiring three named major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—to call the race for the same candidate. If a consensus among all three is not reached, resolution defaults directly to the state's official election certification. A longstop deadline of July 31, 2027 is provided, resolving to Other only if results remain unconfirmed by that time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Toni Atkins wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. It includes a provision to resolve to Other if the election results remain unconfirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Toni Atkins wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three news sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date for the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for election results to be confirmed before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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