Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined based on the outcome of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on specific, named media networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC) unanimously calling the race, with a direct fallback to official state certification if a consensus call is not reached. A generous longstop deadline of July 31, 2027 provides ample time for certification and legal disputes to conclude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Butch Ware will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election. It includes a fallback resolution to Other if results remain unconfirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Butch Ware wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the race. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three networks do not agree, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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