Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome based on the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on consensus among three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear and objective fallback to official election certification if consensus is not reached. There is a definitive longstop date of July 31, 2027, resolving to an alternate outcome if results remain unconfirmed. Overall, the decider has virtually no discretion and the conditions are well-specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Stephen Cloobeck wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Stephen Cloobeck wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — If election results are not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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