Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Current price
95.95¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.95%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome based on the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The decider uses a specific, well-defined consensus mechanism requiring the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to all project the same winner, with an explicit fallback to official state election certification if the networks do not agree. A longstop deadline of July 31, 2027 ensures resolution if certification is significantly delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xavier Becerra will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, resolution will be based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date of the California gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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